I simulated the rest of World Cup qualification for the US (and the rest of CONCACAF). It uses each team’s offensive and defensive efficiency and a simplified home-field advantage to predict each game’s score for the rest of the qualification season. It then simulates the entire thing over and over (I did 50,000 seasons—700,000 games) and keeps track of which team finishes where. This is obviously not groundbreaking.

These graphs, which aren’t labeled too clearly, sorry, show how the simulator figures the United States will finish World Cup qualification given how the US does tonight versus Honduras (kick-off: 9pm EDT, ESPN). The second graph is simply the first graph with some of the standings grouped together by what’s at stake: Top 3 guarantees a spot in next year’s World Cup, 4th requires a play-in game against New Zealand, 5 or 6 means elimination.

With a win tonight (blue bars), the US, in my estimation, makes the World Cup outright over 99% of the time. A draw drops that probability to ~92%. Even with a loss, they still finish in the top 3 nearly 4 out of 5 times (79%).

In slightly under 1% of the simulations overall, the US doesn’t make the World Cup finishing in 5th or 6th. A win drastically reduces that (~0.06%) and guarantees the team can’t finish last. A loss greatly increases the odds of missing out to approximately 1 in 19 simulations (~5.3%).

Anyway, thank you for indulging this post. I’d just keep listing figures (and discussing the other teams), but this is already too long. I did all the coding in Python, which I quite enjoy and recommend, even if you’ve never programmed before.

Eels – Novocaine for the Soul

I have very specific memories of playing this album (Beautiful Freak) and the game Worms for hours with my friends. The two are forever united in my brain. Eels and Worms.

[did tumblr change gif restrictions? took forever to get this one small enough to upload (full size). original photo via rrrick]

It took me a month to hear about Storyboard (sorry Mohney) and now I’m just hearing about Yahoo, so, please, someone tell me when everyone jumps to the new Angelfire.

Sleep well everyone

Truthful Tuesday: I’ve got a few moles and I don’t keep track of them whatsoever.

Kids, if you feel like your important work isn’t getting the attention it so clearly merits, wait a year or so—forget about it entirely, even, move on with your life, raise some goats, then… BOOM WORTH IT!!

millsinabout:

“President Lyndon B. Johnson driving an Amphicar, April 10, 1965.” Sure.

“The President of the USA goes to Moscow and gives a stirring speech outlining the USA’s new “Zero-tolerance” policy with respect to terrorism. On the cruise home, terrorists take over Amphicar One (the President’s official amphicar) and take the passengers (including his wife and daughter) hostage. The terrorists plan to execute one hostage every half-hour unless/until their demands are met. However, the President is a former Medal of Honor winner, so the terrorists may be in for a surprise…”

I know I’m late, but these Grand Rapids flood photos are ridiculous.

I simulated the rest of World Cup qualification for the US (and the rest of CONCACAF). It uses each team’s offensive and defensive efficiency and a simplified home-field advantage to predict each game’s score for the rest of the qualification season. It then simulates the entire thing over and over (I did 50,000 seasons—700,000 games) and keeps track of which team finishes where. This is obviously not groundbreaking.

These graphs, which aren’t labeled too clearly, sorry, show how the simulator figures the United States will finish World Cup qualification given how the US does tonight versus Honduras (kick-off: 9pm EDT, ESPN). The second graph is simply the first graph with some of the standings grouped together by what’s at stake: Top 3 guarantees a spot in next year’s World Cup, 4th requires a play-in game against New Zealand, 5 or 6 means elimination.

With a win tonight (blue bars), the US, in my estimation, makes the World Cup outright over 99% of the time. A draw drops that probability to ~92%. Even with a loss, they still finish in the top 3 nearly 4 out of 5 times (79%).

In slightly under 1% of the simulations overall, the US doesn’t make the World Cup finishing in 5th or 6th. A win drastically reduces that (~0.06%) and guarantees the team can’t finish last. A loss greatly increases the odds of missing out to approximately 1 in 19 simulations (~5.3%).

Anyway, thank you for indulging this post. I’d just keep listing figures (and discussing the other teams), but this is already too long. I did all the coding in Python, which I quite enjoy and recommend, even if you’ve never programmed before.

Eels – Novocaine for the Soul

I have very specific memories of playing this album (Beautiful Freak) and the game Worms for hours with my friends. The two are forever united in my brain. Eels and Worms.

[did tumblr change gif restrictions? took forever to get this one small enough to upload (full size). original photo via rrrick]

It took me a month to hear about Storyboard (sorry Mohney) and now I’m just hearing about Yahoo, so, please, someone tell me when everyone jumps to the new Angelfire.

Sleep well everyone

Truthful Tuesday: I’ve got a few moles and I don’t keep track of them whatsoever.

Kids, if you feel like your important work isn’t getting the attention it so clearly merits, wait a year or so—forget about it entirely, even, move on with your life, raise some goats, then… BOOM WORTH IT!!

millsinabout:

“President Lyndon B. Johnson driving an Amphicar, April 10, 1965.” Sure.

“The President of the USA goes to Moscow and gives a stirring speech outlining the USA’s new “Zero-tolerance” policy with respect to terrorism. On the cruise home, terrorists take over Amphicar One (the President’s official amphicar) and take the passengers (including his wife and daughter) hostage. The terrorists plan to execute one hostage every half-hour unless/until their demands are met. However, the President is a former Medal of Honor winner, so the terrorists may be in for a surprise…”

I know I’m late, but these Grand Rapids flood photos are ridiculous.