sorry your heinous

I simulated the rest of World Cup qualification for the US (and...

Tue, 18 Jun 2013 15:24:14 -0400

I simulated the rest of World Cup qualification for the US (and the rest of CONCACAF). It uses each team’s offensive and defensive efficiency and a simplified home-field advantage to predict each game’s score for the rest of the qualification season. It then simulates the entire thing over and over (I did 50,000 seasons—700,000 games) and keeps track of which team finishes where. This is obviously not groundbreaking.

These graphs, which aren’t labeled too clearly, sorry, show how the simulator figures the United States will finish World Cup qualification given how the US does tonight versus Honduras (kick-off: 9pm EDT, ESPN). The second graph is simply the first graph with some of the standings grouped together by what’s at stake: Top 3 guarantees a spot in next year’s World Cup, 4th requires a play-in game against New Zealand, 5 or 6 means elimination.

With a win tonight (blue bars), the US, in my estimation, makes the World Cup outright over 99% of the time. A draw drops that probability to ~92%. Even with a loss, they still finish in the top 3 nearly 4 out of 5 times (79%).

In slightly under 1% of the simulations overall, the US doesn’t make the World Cup finishing in 5th or 6th. A win drastically reduces that (~0.06%) and guarantees the team can’t finish last. A loss greatly increases the odds of missing out to approximately 1 in 19 simulations (~5.3%).

Anyway, thank you for indulging this post. I’d just keep listing figures (and discussing the other teams), but this is already too long. I did all the coding in Python, which I quite enjoy and recommend, even if you’ve never programmed before.

Eels – Novocaine for the Soul I have very specific memories...

Fri, 31 May 2013 01:17:04 -0400

Eels – Novocaine for the Soul

I have very specific memories of playing this album (Beautiful Freak) and the game Worms for hours with my friends. The two are forever united in my brain. Eels and Worms.

[did tumblr change gif restrictions? took forever to get this...

Thu, 30 May 2013 15:38:00 -0400

[did tumblr change gif restrictions? took forever to get this one small enough to upload (full size). original photo via rrrick]

Photo

Thu, 23 May 2013 21:17:06 -0400

It took me a month to hear about Storyboard (sorry Mohney) and now I’m just hearing about...

Mon, 20 May 2013 16:26:16 -0400

It took me a month to hear about Storyboard (sorry Mohney) and now I’m just hearing about Yahoo, so, please, someone tell me when everyone jumps to the new Angelfire.

Sleep well everyone

Wed, 01 May 2013 02:01:00 -0400

Sleep well everyone

Truthful Tuesday: I’ve got a few moles and I don’t keep track of them whatsoever.

Tue, 30 Apr 2013 21:53:26 -0400

Truthful Tuesday: I’ve got a few moles and I don’t keep track of them whatsoever.

Pony Danza gets the recognition it deserves

Tue, 30 Apr 2013 16:48:09 -0400

Pony Danza gets the recognition it deserves:

Kids, if you feel like your important work isn’t getting the attention it so clearly merits, wait a year or so—forget about it entirely, even, move on with your life, raise some goats, then… BOOM WORTH IT!!

millsinabout: “President Lyndon B. Johnson driving an Amphicar,...

Thu, 25 Apr 2013 17:15:48 -0400

millsinabout:

“President Lyndon B. Johnson driving an Amphicar, April 10, 1965.” Sure.

“The President of the USA goes to Moscow and gives a stirring speech outlining the USA’s new “Zero-tolerance” policy with respect to terrorism. On the cruise home, terrorists take over Amphicar One (the President’s official amphicar) and take the passengers (including his wife and daughter) hostage. The terrorists plan to execute one hostage every half-hour unless/until their demands are met. However, the President is a former Medal of Honor winner, so the terrorists may be in for a surprise…”

I know I’m late, but these Grand Rapids flood photos are...

Thu, 25 Apr 2013 14:36:40 -0400

I know I’m late, but these Grand Rapids flood photos are ridiculous.

Wow, thanks dictionary

Mon, 25 Mar 2013 16:31:28 -0400

Wow, thanks dictionary

Good morning, it’s snowing.

Mon, 25 Mar 2013 05:18:29 -0400

Good morning, it’s snowing.

[longjump, bovine]

Wed, 20 Mar 2013 22:21:45 -0400

[longjump, bovine]

Photo

Sat, 16 Mar 2013 15:19:19 -0400

My dachshund and her ($7) birthday coat. These last couple...

Wed, 13 Mar 2013 20:07:32 -0400

My dachshund and her ($7) birthday coat. These last couple winters have been the first that she’s been noticeably affected by the cold, enough that she will tolerate wearing a coat or sweater at all. She is getting pretty old; easy for me to forget, because, aside from a little gray near her nose, she looks exactly like she’s always looked. As to precisely how old she is, I’m not entirely sure. She’s either 12 or 13, a mystery I could easily solve if I wasn’t too lazy to dig out some old photo albums.

me: the other day I was thinking about the most asshole customization you could do as a rich person...

Wed, 13 Mar 2013 16:20:00 -0400

me: the other day I was thinking about the most asshole customization you could do as a rich person and I came up with gravitationally-stabilized helicopter hot tub
christian: !!!!!!!
christian: I would own that.
me: I think it’s great because a) I think you could do it, but b) it would take so much work and be so insanely inefficient
me: and helicopters can only fly for so long, you’d barely prune
christian: relaxing AND convenient
christian: the helitub

[from a video posted by Jamison last night.]

Sat, 09 Mar 2013 17:45:47 -0500

[from a video posted by Jamison last night.]

Photo

Sat, 09 Mar 2013 04:42:12 -0500

Photo

Sat, 02 Mar 2013 14:06:24 -0500

Holy shit, my grandfather turns 99 today.

Sat, 02 Mar 2013 05:51:11 -0500

Holy shit, my grandfather turns 99 today.